Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, and the criminal gangs responsible for smuggling it have surged to the top of the United States’ security concerns. The latest annual report from senior Trump administration officials, delivered to the Senate Intelligence Committee, lists fentanyl and the international operations behind its production and trafficking as the primary dangers to US national security. This reprioritisation places the US fentanyl crisis and the US fentanyl threat ahead of concerns posed by adversaries such as Iran, North Korea, and Russia.

Fentanyl and Cartel Networks Dominate National Security Conversations

For the first time, the US Annual Threat Assessment identifies foreign drug cartels among the foremost menaces to the nation. Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, in her opening address, reported that cartels were largely responsible for more than 54,000 American deaths from synthetic opioids in the year leading up to October 2024. The assessment released by the US Intelligence Community provided a closely related estimate of 52,000 cartel-linked fatalities during the same period. Both figures underscore the severity of the US fentanyl crisis and its reach across every US community.

Contextualising the US Fentanyl Threat and Its Deadliness

The numbers are striking. According to the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), around 84,000 people died from overdoses involving fentanyl, methamphetamines, and other illicit drugs in that period. The scale is staggering and illustrates why the US fentanyl crisis is regarded as not just a public health ordeal, but a pressing national security threat.

Senator Tom Cotton, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, highlighted how fentanyl’s devastation now surpasses traditional state-based threats in the eyes of US intelligence. “For the first time, the annual threat assessment lists foreign illicit drug actors as the very first threat to our country,” he noted, referencing Mexican-based cartels that source fentanyl precursor chemicals from China.

The Changing Landscape of the US Fentanyl Crisis

Fentanyl established itself as a street-level threat in the US from 2012 onwards, quickly overtaking heroin and prescription painkillers as the preferred opioid amongst criminal networks. The first Trump administration saw fatalities driven by fentanyl rise sharply, especially in 2020 when there was an increase of more than 30%. The scale and speed of this increase has stunned policymakers and law enforcement alike.

While recent years have seen a modest reduction in overdose deaths (over 26% drop from 2023’s peak through October last year), the US fentanyl threat remains potent. Previous responses have centred around public health, but President Trump has redirected attention to tariffs and international pressure, tying trade policies with Canada, China, and Mexico to concerns over fentanyl trafficking.

Diplomatic Tensions Over Fentanyl Precursors

A significant focus in the US fentanyl crisis has been on the flow of precursor chemicals from China, a critical component in the illicit manufacturing of the drug. During the Senate hearing, Senator Cotton questioned US intelligence leaders about China’s responsibilities. CIA Director John Ratcliffe pointedly remarked that there is nothing preventing China from cracking down on exports of fentanyl-related chemicals.

“There are more than six hundred PRC-related companies that produce those precursor chemicals, in an industry generating over $1.5 trillion in revenue,” Ratcliffe added, highlighting the scale and complexity of the international supply chain behind the US fentanyl threat.

Cooperation from the Chinese government is described as “intermittent and limited.” While the Biden administration claimed last year to be making progress through greater collaboration with China and Mexico, especially to disrupt the fentanyl supply chain, US intelligence officials and lawmakers voiced doubts about the endurance and reliability of these efforts.

Revisiting Security Strategy for the US Fentanyl Threat

The Trump administration’s framing of the US fentanyl crisis as a national security and terrorism issue marks a shift from earlier approaches. Trump’s designation of drug cartels as terrorist organisations and his calls for the death penalty for dealers have redefined how America considers the fentanyl threat. Some Republican lawmakers, such as Congressman Greg Steube of Florida, have even floated the idea of US military interventions targeting cartels in Mexico and elsewhere.

Nevertheless, many drug policy experts caution against equating drug smuggling with conventional warfare. Regina LaBelle, a drug policy authority at Georgetown University, commented that “you can’t bomb [drug gangs] out of existence. It’s a much more sophisticated and complex effort.”

Experts warn that increasing the severity of designations—for example, treating fentanyl as a weapon of mass destruction (WMD)—could further strain diplomatic ties with China and escalate the risk of military interventions in Mexico. Vanda Felbab-Brown, a specialist from the Brookings Institution, noted that accusing China of enabling WMD terrorism would severely jeopardise bilateral relations.

The Ongoing Challenge of the US Fentanyl Crisis

There is widespread agreement that criminal cartels and their international partners have fuelled the deadliest wave of overdoses in US history. With more than 54,000 deaths tracked to synthetic opioids last year, the impact on families, communities, and local law enforcement is devastating.

Yet, the debate continues over how best to respond. While a more militarised, security-focused stance may find support among some lawmakers and sectors of the Trump administration, public health experts and drug policy analysts urge a more nuanced strategy. Their concern is that escalating rhetoric could undermine fragile international collaboration and miss the complex social, economic, and supply chain factors underpinning the US fentanyl threat.

Source: NPR