Europe is facing a sharp rise in cocaine related violence. That’s the warning from experts who gathered for a recent European Union Drugs Agency webinar. The focus was on how criminal networks fight for control of the continent’s booming narcotics trade.

Why Old Definitions of Cocaine Related Violence no Longer Fit

The session looked at how drug trafficking violence has changed over time. Researchers first studied the link back in the crack cocaine epidemic of the 1980s. The European Homicide Monitor team said that original framework still holds up in broad terms. However, the trade itself barely resembles what it once was. Markets today are more diverse and far more international. Many also run through encrypted apps rather than street corners. As a result, cocaine related violence now plays out in different places, and in different ways, than it did decades ago.

The Cocaine Surge Behind the Trouble

Cocaine is the clearest driver of the problem right now. Indeed, global production has more than doubled since 2020. It hit an estimated three million kilograms in 2023 alone. A lot of that supply now lands through northern ports such as Antwerp and Rotterdam. In fact, seizures have climbed to match. Sweden, for instance, recently pulled in three tonnes of cocaine in a single operation, more than ten times its old annual total.

Prices tell an odd story here. Across most of Western Europe, wholesale and retail prices have actually dropped as supply has grown. Even so, a closer study of Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden found prices in those three countries staying historically high. Researchers think this reflects just how much risk criminal groups will take on to move drugs across borders. Meanwhile, wastewater testing in European capitals points to use roughly doubling, or even tripling, over the past decade. That rising demand is what keeps these markets, and the violence around them, growing.

What the Data Shows Across Europe

Preliminary figures from the European Homicide Monitor cover 2020 to 2024. They reveal some sharply different national pictures. Sweden, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and France all report higher numbers of drug trafficking violence each year. These cases often involve firearms, public locations and, in some instances, minors. By contrast, Estonia, Switzerland and Hungary sit at the other end of the scale. They record far fewer such cases, with alcohol playing the bigger role in their homicide figures instead. Finland stands out for a different reason again. There, drugs appear to be edging out alcohol as a factor in violence among younger offenders.

How Drug Trafficking Violence Plays out on the Ground in Stockholm

Local research from Stockholm shows just how closely cocaine related violence ties to specific places. Police and council analysts have mapped open air drug markets across the city. They found that thirty to forty percent of all gun violence happens in or near these spots. Many fatal shootings occur at the very same sites. Every open air market in the city sits in an area linked to active gang recruitment. Organised criminal networks run around eighty percent of them. A similar share have buyers aged fifteen or younger making up half or more of the people there. These patterns hold steady year after year. Because of that, police say the data helps them target resources more precisely and chip away at the conditions that let such markets take root.

Closing the Data Gap

Speakers agreed that tackling cocaine related violence properly will need far better data across the European Union. Right now, several member states only record these cases under broader organised crime statistics. Even so, the figures that do exist suggest a strong overlap. In the Netherlands, around ninety percent of organised crime homicides link directly back to drug markets. Officials hope wider national monitoring will help close that gap. So will work already under way in France, Sweden and elsewhere. Together, these efforts should give policymakers a clearer view of where violence concentrates. They should also point towards where prevention focused responses are needed most.

The European Union Drugs Agency plans to publish the full Homicide Monitor findings later this year. That work will sit alongside further research linking drug trafficking violence to wider indicators such as seizures, arrests and pricing trends. Researchers were clear that strengthening this evidence base matters. Without it, authorities are left guessing at emerging risks rather than getting ahead of them.

Source: dbrecoveryresources